Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
